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The Three Forces That Shape Every Return: Deconstructing Market, Skill, and Noise

The Morning That Looked Simple Three colleagues were supposed to attend a conference across the city. All three lived in the same neighbourhood. Same starting point. Same destination. Same city traffic waiting for them. But each chose differently. Amit, the youngest among them, looked at his bike and decided instantly. “Bike is best. I can weave through traffic. Fast and flexible.” Vidita, practical and calm, paused for a moment. “I’ll take an auto to the metro station and then the metro. It’s predictable. I can even revise my notes.” Dr. Rao, the senior professor, simply waited for his car. “Comfort matters,” he smiled. “It’s going to be a long day. No need to start it stressed.” Three people. Same place. Same goal. Three different choices. Nothing unusual so far. What the City Threw at Them As they started, the city did what cities always do. Traffic built up near the main junction. One road was blocked for emergency repairs. A political rally slowed an entire stretch. The s...

The Investment Mindset Gap: Return-Focused Retail vs Risk-Focused Professionals

 A Simple Call That Created a Big Question I received a call from a friend one evening. His voice was full of confusion and frustration. He said,  "I don't understand this at all. Five years back, I invested ₹5 lakhs in equity and ₹5 lakhs in debt. My equity averaged 11% return per year. My debt averaged 9% per year." He paused, then continued, almost angrily: But  today, my equity portfolio value is less than my debt portfolio. If return is higher, corpus should be higher. That is basic maths, no?  L ess return asset is winning, and higher return asset is losing. How is this even possible?” His confusion was genuine. And honestly, his logic was also very natural. This is exactly how most people think. Higher return percentage means higher money. Bigger number means better outcome. We think like this because this is how we are trained to think in school, in jobs, in salaries, in growth, in performance, in marks. Everything in life works on simple averages and compa...

The Investor’s Dilemma: Decoding Philosophy, Practice, and Performance

The Confusion of Too Many Right Answers You are reading about value investing and it sounds brilliant. Buy undervalued assets, wait patiently, and profit when the market finally realises its mistake. It makes perfect sense. Then you read about growth investing. Pay for quality businesses that can compound for decades.  Asian Paints often traded at relatively high valuations compared with many peers, yet long-term investors who held it patiently were rewarded with significant wealth creation. Then momentum investing catches your attention. Trends persist, ride the wave, cut losses quickly. The data looks convincing. Then someone recommends index funds. Most active investors fail to beat the market, so why even try? Just own everything and move on. Logical again. So which one is right? Here is the uncomfortable truth. They are all right. And they all seem to contradict each other. Value says, “Buy cheap.” Growth says, “Pay for quality.” Momentum says, “Follow price, not value....